Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Wahl Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Markt ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Markt ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Markt ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Markt ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Markt ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 91% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 91% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 91% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 91% |
| Nebraska vs. Michigan State | 85% |
| O/U 34.5 | 85% |
| O/U 28.5 | 78% |
| O/U 30.5 | 77% |
| O/U 32.5 | 77% |
| Spread -2.5 | 76% |
| Spread -1.5 | 76% |
| Spread -3.5 | 75% |
| O/U 36.5 | 74% |
| O/U 40.5 | 73% |
| O/U 38.5 | 72% |
| Spread -6.5 | 71% |
| Spread -4.5 | 71% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 70% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 70% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 67% |
| O/U 42.5 | 63% |
| Spread -7.5 | 61% |
| Spread -5.5 | 59% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 58% |
| O/U 46.5 | 57% |
| Spread -9.5 | 56% |
| Spread -8.5 | 56% |
| Nebraska O/U 27.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 55% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 55% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 55% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 53% |
| Spread -10.5 | 52% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Spread -26.5 | 50% |
| Spread -23.5 | 50% |
| Spread -22.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State 1H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State 2H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Nebraska O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Nebraska vs. Michigan State: Total Touchdowns O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska vs. Michigan State: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska vs. Michigan State: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Michigan State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska vs. Michigan State: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska vs. Michigan State: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Nebraska vs. Michigan State: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| O/U 44.5 | 49% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 49% |
| Nebraska O/U 30.5 | 49% |
| Spread -13.5 | 48% |
| O/U 50.5 | 48% |
| Spread -11.5 | 47% |
| Spread -12.5 | 46% |
| O/U 48.5 | 46% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 45% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 44% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 44% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 42% |
| 3Q O/U 12.5 | 41% |
| Michigan State O/U 21.5 | 38% |
| Spread -16.5 | 37% |
| Spread -14.5 | 37% |
| O/U 52.5 | 36% |
| O/U 56.5 | 36% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| Spread -19.5 | 35% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 35% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| O/U 60.5 | 32% |
| O/U 62.5 | 31% |
| O/U 66.5 | 29% |
| O/U 54.5 | 28% |
| O/U 68.5 | 28% |
| Spread -20.5 | 27% |
| O/U 58.5 | 21% |
| Spread -1.5 | 17% |
| Spread -4.5 | 17% |
| Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| Spread -11.5 | 16% |
| O/U 64.5 | 14% |
| Michigan State O/U 27.5 | 14% |
| Spread -2.5 | 13% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 10% |
| 1Q O/U 15.5 | 10% |
| Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 9% |
| 1Q O/U 12.5 | 9% |
| Spread -14.5 | 5% |
Markt-Kontext
Nebraska vs. Michigan State. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 85% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-09-26T21:00:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $260K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Politische Prognose-Märkte unterscheiden sich strukturell von Sportwetten: weniger Liquidität, längere Settlement-Zeiträume, höhere Sensitivität auf einzelne News-Events. Diese Seite zeigt die Live-Polymarket-Quote für Prognose: Nebraska vs. Michigan State plus Plattform-Attribute der drei Vergleichs-Anbieter, damit Sie auf einen Blick sehen, wo die liquidesten Märkte für die Frage liegen.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Politische Märkte werden meist nach offizieller Kandidaten- oder Behörden-Bestätigung aufgelöst. Polymarket nutzt das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Proposer reicht das Outcome mit Bond ein, Two-Hour-Window öffnet, dann zahlt der Smart Contract USDC.
Kalshi settelt USD via CFTC-Clearinghouse, mit klar definierten Resolution Sources (z.B. AP Race Calls für Wahlen). Betfair settelt nach offiziellem Ergebnis-Eintrag der Liga/Behörde. Manifold ist Spielgeld.
Häufige Fragen
- Wie genau sind Polit-Vorhersagemärkte?
- Historisch genauer als Umfragen. Polymarkets Brier-Score auf US-Wahlen 2024 lag bei ~0,11 — besser als 538 (~0,14) und alle Mainstream-Umfragen. Märkte aggregieren Information mit echtem Skin-in-the-Game.
- Können politische Märkte Wahlen beeinflussen?
- Märkte spiegeln Erwartungen, sie erzeugen sie nicht. Studien zeigen, dass öffentlich sichtbare Märkte Erwartungs-Anker setzen können — aber nicht das Wahlergebnis selbst beeinflussen. Polit-Märkte sind Information, nicht Wahlwerbung.
- Wie schnell reagieren Polit-Märkte auf News?
- Hochliquide Märkte bewegen sich binnen Sekunden bis Minuten. Ein Trump-Tweet über die Wirtschaft kann den 'Trump 2024'-Markt 2-5 Punkte verschieben, bevor Mainstream-Medien überhaupt geschrieben haben.
- Warum unterscheiden sich Polymarket und Kalshi bei Wahlen?
- Kalshi muss CFTC-Compliance einhalten — strenge Definitionen, klare Resolution Sources, US-Bürger only mit KYC. Polymarket operiert global, ohne CFTC-Aufsicht — was tiefere Liquidität, aber auch höheres regulatorisches Risiko bedeutet.
- Welche politischen Events haben das größte Volumen?
- US-Präsidentschaftswahl, Parteinominierungen (DNC/RNC), Senate-Mehrheiten, einzelne State-Outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), und Bundestagswahl/EU-Wahl. Spitzenwerte liegen bei $50-500 Mio per Event.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Nebraska vs. Michigan State" auf Wahl Wetten handeln
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