Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Wahl Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
89% | 11% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Markt ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
89% | 11% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Markt ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Markt ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Markt ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Markt ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ shots | 89% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots | 88% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots | 84% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots | 84% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots | 82% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ shots | 78% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ shots | 77% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots | 75% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots | 74% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots | 73% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ shots | 69% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots | 69% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots | 67% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ shots | 65% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots | 63% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ shots | 62% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots | 62% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ shots on target | 62% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots | 52% |
| Brice Samba: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Brice Samba: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Brice Samba: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Brice Samba: 5+ saves | 50% |
| David Raya: 2+ saves | 50% |
| David Raya: 3+ saves | 50% |
| David Raya: 4+ saves | 50% |
| David Raya: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Pedri: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bradley Barcola: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Manu Koné: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Pedri: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Pedri: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Pedri: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Pedri: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Rodri: 3+ shots | 50% |
| William Saliba: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Nico Williams: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Lucas Digne: 3+ shots | 50% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Gavi Paez: 2+ goals | 49% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 2+ assists | 49% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ assists | 49% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ assists | 48% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ shots | 48% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ assists | 47% |
| Rodri: 1+ shots | 46% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ shots on target | 45% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ shots on target | 44% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ shots | 43% |
| Dani Olmo: 3+ shots | 43% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots | 42% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ shots on target | 42% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals | 41% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 4+ shots | 41% |
| Nico Williams: 2+ goals | 40% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ shots | 40% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ assists | 39% |
| William Saliba: 2+ shots | 37% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ shots on target | 37% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ shots on target | 37% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ shots on target | 37% |
| Yeremi Pino: 2+ goals | 35% |
| Pedri: 1+ shots | 35% |
| Dani Olmo: 4+ shots | 35% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 4+ shots on target | 35% |
| William Saliba: 1+ shots | 34% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ shots on target | 34% |
| Désiré Doué: 5+ shots | 34% |
| Manu Koné: 3+ shots | 34% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 5+ shots | 34% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 2+ shots | 33% |
| Manu Koné: 1+ assists | 33% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ shots on target | 33% |
| Michael Olise: 5+ shots | 33% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots | 32% |
| Jules Koundé: 1+ shots | 31% |
| Lucas Digne: 1+ shots | 31% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ assists | 31% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ assists | 31% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots on target | 31% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ shots on target | 31% |
| Manu Koné: 2+ shots on target | 30% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots on target | 30% |
| Alex Baena: 5+ shots | 30% |
| Dani Olmo: 5+ shots | 30% |
| Lamine Yamal: 4+ shots | 30% |
| Ferrán Torres: 2+ goals | 29% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 4+ shots | 29% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ goals | 28% |
| Bradley Barcola: 2+ goals | 28% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 1+ shots | 28% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ shots on target | 28% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 1+ shots | 27% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ assists | 27% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals + assists | 27% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals | 26% |
| Cucurella: 1+ shots | 26% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 1+ shots | 26% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ shots on target | 26% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals + assists | 26% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots | 26% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ shots | 25% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ goals | 24% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals | 24% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals | 24% |
| Pedri: 2+ assists | 23% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ shots on target | 23% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ shots | 23% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 5+ shots | 23% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ assists | 22% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists | 21% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ shots on target | 21% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ shots on target | 21% |
| Mikel Merino: 2+ goals | 20% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Michael Olise: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Pedri: 1+ shots on target | 19% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ assists | 18% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists | 18% |
| Pedro Porro: 1+ shots on target | 18% |
| Rodri: 1+ shots on target | 18% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ shots on target | 17% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ assists | 16% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ shots on target | 16% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Pedri: 1+ goals + assists | 16% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ shots | 16% |
| Lucas Digne: 1+ shots on target | 15% |
| Lamine Yamal: 5+ shots | 15% |
| Bradley Barcola: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Désiré Doué: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Cucurella: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Jules Koundé: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ shots on target | 14% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ shots on target | 14% |
| Pau Cubarsí: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| William Saliba: 1+ shots on target | 14% |
| Alex Baena: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Alex Baena: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Rayan Cherki: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Pedri: 2+ shots | 13% |
| Rodri: 2+ shots | 13% |
| Alex Baena: 2+ shots on target | 13% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ shots on target | 13% |
| Désiré Doué: 4+ shots | 13% |
| Michael Olise: 4+ shots | 13% |
| Cucurella: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Dayot Upamecano: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Jules Koundé: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Pedro Porro: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Aymeric Laporte: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Lucas Digne: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Dani Olmo: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Alex Baena: 4+ shots | 11% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 5+ shots | 11% |
| Nico Williams: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ assists | 10% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 2+ assists | 9% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Adrien Rabiot: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Mikel Merino: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Rayan Cherki: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ assists | 8% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ assists | 7% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ assists | 7% |
| Pedri: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Bradley Barcola: 3+ goals | 6% |
| Désiré Doué: 3+ goals | 6% |
| Ferrán Torres: 3+ goals | 6% |
| Aurélien Tchouameni: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Pedro Porro: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Gavi Paez: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Michael Olise: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Yeremi Pino: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Désiré Doué: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Fabián Ruiz: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Rayan Cherki: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Dani Olmo: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Michael Olise: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Mikel Oyarzabal: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goals | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Live-Daten von Polymarket zeigen 89% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: France vs. Spain - Player Props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between France and Spain, scheduled for July 14 at 3:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Seite tracked Prognose: France vs. Spain - Player Props über vier politische Prognose-Plattformen. Live-Quoten kommen aus dem Polymarket-Orderbuch (das größte politische Prediction-Volume). Kalshi ist die CFTC-regulierte US-Alternative, Betfair die etablierte UK-Sportbörse mit Politik-Märkten, Manifold die offene Spielgeld-Variante. Für DE/AT/CH-Nutzer mit Geo-Block bietet Wahl Wetten einen 0%-Broker-Zugang zu demselben Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Bei politischen Märkten ist die Resolution-Quelle entscheidend. Polymarket definiert pro Vertrag eine konkrete Quelle (z.B. AP, Reuters, offizielle Wahlbehörde) und nutzt das UMA Optimistic Oracle als On-Chain-Disputmechanismus. Bei klar definiertem Outcome erfolgt die USDC-Auszahlung binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung.
Häufige Fragen
- Können politische Märkte Wahlen beeinflussen?
- Märkte spiegeln Erwartungen, sie erzeugen sie nicht. Studien zeigen, dass öffentlich sichtbare Märkte Erwartungs-Anker setzen können — aber nicht das Wahlergebnis selbst beeinflussen. Polit-Märkte sind Information, nicht Wahlwerbung.
- Was ist die liquideste politische Plattform?
- Polymarket — mit Abstand. Das US-Präsidentschafts-Volumen 2024 lag bei ~$3,5 Mrd vs Kalshi (~$200 M) und Betfair (~$120 M). Da Polymarket in vielen Jurisdiktionen geo-blockiert ist, nutzen Trader Broker wie Wahl Wetten um auf dasselbe Orderbuch zuzugreifen — ohne zusätzliche Gebühren.
- Wie schnell reagieren Polit-Märkte auf News?
- Hochliquide Märkte bewegen sich binnen Sekunden bis Minuten. Ein Trump-Tweet über die Wirtschaft kann den 'Trump 2024'-Markt 2-5 Punkte verschieben, bevor Mainstream-Medien überhaupt geschrieben haben.
- Sind politische Vorhersagemärkte in DE legal?
- Sie befinden sich in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert; einige Broker-Frontends haben einen anderen Geo-Footprint. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können — und nur, wenn Sie die rechtliche Lage in Ihrer Jurisdiktion verstehen.
- Welche politischen Events haben das größte Volumen?
- US-Präsidentschaftswahl, Parteinominierungen (DNC/RNC), Senate-Mehrheiten, einzelne State-Outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), und Bundestagswahl/EU-Wahl. Spitzenwerte liegen bei $50-500 Mio per Event.
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