Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Wahl Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Markt ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Markt ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Markt ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Markt ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Markt ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals | 100% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 2+ shots | 100% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 3+ shots | 100% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 4+ shots | 100% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Sadio Mané: 1+ shots | 100% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ assists | 100% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ shots | 99% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots | 99% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ shots | 92% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 1+ shots | 90% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ shots | 85% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ goals + assists | 77% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ shots on target | 76% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ shots | 75% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ shots on target | 75% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals + assists | 61% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 2+ saves | 52% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Sadio Mané: 1+ shots on target | 51% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 1+ goals | 50% |
| Edouard Mendy: 3+ saves | 50% |
| Edouard Mendy: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sadio Mané: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sadio Mané: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sadio Mané: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sadio Mané: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sadio Mané: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sadio Mané: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Bamba Dieng: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Jeremy Doku: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Leandro Trossard: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Leandro Trossard: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Sadio Mané: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Sadio Mané: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Sadio Mané: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Leandro Trossard: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Bamba Dieng: 1+ shots | 49% |
| Bamba Dieng: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Bamba Dieng: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Bamba Dieng: 4+ shots | 49% |
| Bamba Dieng: 5+ shots | 49% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Edouard Mendy: 2+ saves | 47% |
| Edouard Mendy: 5+ saves | 47% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 5+ shots | 47% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Jeremy Doku: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Sadio Mané: 4+ goals + assists | 47% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 4+ shots | 42% |
| Sadio Mané: 2+ shots | 40% |
| Jeremy Doku: 5+ shots | 38% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ goals | 32% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 1+ shots | 30% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 1+ shots | 28% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 2+ shots | 27% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 3+ shots | 24% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 2+ assists | 23% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 2+ shots | 22% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ goals | 18% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 3+ shots | 18% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ assists | 18% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 1+ assists | 16% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Bamba Dieng: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Bamba Dieng: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Sadio Mané: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 5+ shots | 11% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 3+ goals | 10% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ shots | 9% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ shots | 7% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Chérif Ndiaye: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 1+ goals | 3% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goals | 3% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ shots | 3% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 5+ shots | 2% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Sadio Mané: 1+ assists | 2% |
| Ismaïla Sarr: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Nicolas Jackson: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Ibrahim Mbaye: 1+ goals | 1% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ shots | 1% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ shots | 1% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ shots | 1% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ shots | 1% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ assists | 1% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Sadio Mané: 1+ goals | 0% |
| Sadio Mané: 2+ goals | 0% |
| Sadio Mané: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 4+ shots | 0% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists | 0% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ assists | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Händler auf dezentralen Prognosemärkten geben 100% Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Belgium vs. Senegal - Player Props. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Belgium and Senegal, scheduled for July 1 at 4:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Politische Prognose-Märkte unterscheiden sich strukturell von Sportwetten: weniger Liquidität, längere Settlement-Zeiträume, höhere Sensitivität auf einzelne News-Events. Diese Seite zeigt die Live-Polymarket-Quote für Prognose: Belgium vs. Senegal - Player Props plus Plattform-Attribute der drei Vergleichs-Anbieter, damit Sie auf einen Blick sehen, wo die liquidesten Märkte für die Frage liegen.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Bei politischen Märkten ist die Resolution-Quelle entscheidend. Polymarket definiert pro Vertrag eine konkrete Quelle (z.B. AP, Reuters, offizielle Wahlbehörde) und nutzt das UMA Optimistic Oracle als On-Chain-Disputmechanismus. Bei klar definiertem Outcome erfolgt die USDC-Auszahlung binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung.
Häufige Fragen
- Wie genau sind Polit-Vorhersagemärkte?
- Historisch genauer als Umfragen. Polymarkets Brier-Score auf US-Wahlen 2024 lag bei ~0,11 — besser als 538 (~0,14) und alle Mainstream-Umfragen. Märkte aggregieren Information mit echtem Skin-in-the-Game.
- Welche Resolution-Quelle wird für Wahlen genutzt?
- Polymarket definiert die Quelle pro Vertrag — meist Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters oder die offizielle Wahlbehörde. Die Quelle steht in den Vertrags-Details, bevor der Markt eröffnet.
- Können politische Märkte Wahlen beeinflussen?
- Märkte spiegeln Erwartungen, sie erzeugen sie nicht. Studien zeigen, dass öffentlich sichtbare Märkte Erwartungs-Anker setzen können — aber nicht das Wahlergebnis selbst beeinflussen. Polit-Märkte sind Information, nicht Wahlwerbung.
- Wie schnell reagieren Polit-Märkte auf News?
- Hochliquide Märkte bewegen sich binnen Sekunden bis Minuten. Ein Trump-Tweet über die Wirtschaft kann den 'Trump 2024'-Markt 2-5 Punkte verschieben, bevor Mainstream-Medien überhaupt geschrieben haben.
- Welche politischen Events haben das größte Volumen?
- US-Präsidentschaftswahl, Parteinominierungen (DNC/RNC), Senate-Mehrheiten, einzelne State-Outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), und Bundestagswahl/EU-Wahl. Spitzenwerte liegen bei $50-500 Mio per Event.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2026%20A%2022%2028%200%200%201%2054%2026%22%20fill%3D%22%2365a30d%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
und%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2210%22%20y%3D%224%22%20width%3D%2244%22%20height%3D%2214%22%20rx%3D%227%22%20fill%3D%22%2365a30d%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%228%22%20%20y%3D%2218%22%20width%3D%228%22%20%20height%3D%2218%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%2365a30d%22%20opacity%3D%220.7%22%2F%3E%3Crect%20x%3D%2248%22%20y%3D%2218%22%20width%3D%228%22%20%20height%3D%2218%22%20rx%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22%2365a30d%22%20opacity%3D%220.7%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Jetzt „Prognose: Belgium vs. Senegal - Player Props" auf Wahl Wetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →