Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Wahl Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
92% | 8% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Markt ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
92% | 8% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Markt ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Markt ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Markt ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Markt ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 35.5 | 92% |
| O/U 41.5 | 86% |
| O/U 37.5 | 76% |
| O/U 39.5 | 75% |
| O/U 43.5 | 73% |
| O/U 47.5 | 73% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 73% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 71% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 71% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 70% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 69% |
| Spread -1.5 | 67% |
| Spread -2.5 | 66% |
| Spread -5.5 | 58% |
| O/U 53.5 | 58% |
| Spread -3.5 | 56% |
| Spread -4.5 | 56% |
| Spread -6.5 | 56% |
| O/U 63.5 | 54% |
| O/U 55.5 | 53% |
| O/U 54.5 | 53% |
| Spread -8.5 | 53% |
| O/U 45.5 | 53% |
| Boston College O/U 34.5 | 53% |
| Rutgers O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Rutgers O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Rutgers O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Boston College O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Boston College O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Boston College O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Boston College O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| Spread -24.5 | 50% |
| Spread -27.5 | 50% |
| Spread -31.5 | 50% |
| Spread -34.5 | 50% |
| O/U 49.5 | 50% |
| O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| O/U 61.5 | 50% |
| O/U 67.5 | 50% |
| O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| O/U 73.5 | 50% |
| O/U 75.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Boston College O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Boston College O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| Boston College O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| Rutgers O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Rutgers O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Evan Dickens: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| KJ Duff: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Antwan Raymond: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Mason McKenzie: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Bo MacCormack III: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Javarius Green: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| John Montague: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jaedn Skeete: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Reed Swanson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Ben Black: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Dylan Lonergan: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Zeke Moore: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Dawson Pough: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| Boston College 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Boston College 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Boston College 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Rutgers 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Rutgers 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Rutgers 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Jourdin Houston: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Rutgers O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Rutgers O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| Rutgers O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| Rutgers O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| Boston College O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Boston College O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Boston College O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Boston College O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Boston College O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Rutgers O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Rutgers O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Rutgers O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| AJ Surace: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Clay Thevenin: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Logan Blake: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Nolan Ray: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Ja'shon Benjamin: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Brady Clough: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Famah Toure: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Mike Higgins: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Michael Thomas III: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Vernon Allen III: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jackson Wade: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Boston College O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Rutgers O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Boston College 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Boston College 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Boston College 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Rutgers 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Rutgers 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Rutgers 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Boston College 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Boston College 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Boston College 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Rutgers 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Rutgers 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Rutgers 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Rutgers 1H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Boston College 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Boston College 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Boston College 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Rutgers 1H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| Spread -18.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Boston College O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Boston College O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Boston College O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Boston College O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Boston College O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| Rutgers O/U 23.5 | 49% |
| O/U 57.5 | 48% |
| Spread -13.5 | 48% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| Spread -9.5 | 47% |
| Rutgers O/U 19.5 | 46% |
| Rutgers O/U 20.5 | 46% |
| Spread -11.5 | 46% |
| Spread -7.5 | 45% |
| Boston College O/U 28.5 | 45% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| Rutgers O/U 24.5 | 44% |
| Rutgers O/U 27.5 | 42% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 42% |
| O/U 59.5 | 41% |
| Spread -10.5 | 36% |
| Rutgers vs. Boston College | 34% |
| Rutgers O/U 30.5 | 34% |
| Spread -13.5 | 33% |
| Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| Spread -14.5 | 30% |
| Spread -6.5 | 30% |
| Spread -4.5 | 30% |
| Spread -16.5 | 27% |
| Spread -3.5 | 27% |
| Spread -1.5 | 25% |
| O/U 65.5 | 23% |
| Rutgers O/U 3.5 | 22% |
| Spread -17.5 | 21% |
| Spread -9.5 | 21% |
| Spread -20.5 | 20% |
| O/U 71.5 | 16% |
| Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 12% |
| Spread -16.5 | 9% |
Markt-Kontext
Rutgers vs. Boston College. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 43% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-09-11T23:30:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $199K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Politische Prognose-Märkte unterscheiden sich strukturell von Sportwetten: weniger Liquidität, längere Settlement-Zeiträume, höhere Sensitivität auf einzelne News-Events. Diese Seite zeigt die Live-Polymarket-Quote für Prognose: Rutgers vs. Boston College plus Plattform-Attribute der drei Vergleichs-Anbieter, damit Sie auf einen Blick sehen, wo die liquidesten Märkte für die Frage liegen.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Bei politischen Märkten ist die Resolution-Quelle entscheidend. Polymarket definiert pro Vertrag eine konkrete Quelle (z.B. AP, Reuters, offizielle Wahlbehörde) und nutzt das UMA Optimistic Oracle als On-Chain-Disputmechanismus. Bei klar definiertem Outcome erfolgt die USDC-Auszahlung binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung.
Häufige Fragen
- Wie genau sind Polit-Vorhersagemärkte?
- Historisch genauer als Umfragen. Polymarkets Brier-Score auf US-Wahlen 2024 lag bei ~0,11 — besser als 538 (~0,14) und alle Mainstream-Umfragen. Märkte aggregieren Information mit echtem Skin-in-the-Game.
- Können politische Märkte Wahlen beeinflussen?
- Märkte spiegeln Erwartungen, sie erzeugen sie nicht. Studien zeigen, dass öffentlich sichtbare Märkte Erwartungs-Anker setzen können — aber nicht das Wahlergebnis selbst beeinflussen. Polit-Märkte sind Information, nicht Wahlwerbung.
- Was ist die liquideste politische Plattform?
- Polymarket — mit Abstand. Das US-Präsidentschafts-Volumen 2024 lag bei ~$3,5 Mrd vs Kalshi (~$200 M) und Betfair (~$120 M). Da Polymarket in vielen Jurisdiktionen geo-blockiert ist, nutzen Trader Broker wie Wahl Wetten um auf dasselbe Orderbuch zuzugreifen — ohne zusätzliche Gebühren.
- Wie schnell reagieren Polit-Märkte auf News?
- Hochliquide Märkte bewegen sich binnen Sekunden bis Minuten. Ein Trump-Tweet über die Wirtschaft kann den 'Trump 2024'-Markt 2-5 Punkte verschieben, bevor Mainstream-Medien überhaupt geschrieben haben.
- Welche politischen Events haben das größte Volumen?
- US-Präsidentschaftswahl, Parteinominierungen (DNC/RNC), Senate-Mehrheiten, einzelne State-Outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), und Bundestagswahl/EU-Wahl. Spitzenwerte liegen bei $50-500 Mio per Event.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Rutgers vs. Boston College" auf Wahl Wetten handeln
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